An emerging VC tries to beat the odds in a brutal fundraising market

The venture capital market has become extraordinarily difficult for first-time fund managers. According to PitchBook data, established firms raising their fourth fund or later captured 88.2% of U.S. VC fundraising dollars in the first three quarters of this year, while first-time funds secured just 4.5%. Only 81 first-time funds closed in that period, putting 2026 on track to be the worst year for emerging managers in at least a decade.

Olaf Sakkers, founder of RedBlue Capital, represents a rare success story navigating this squeeze. After closing his first fund with $5 million in 2023, he has now held a first close on a second fund targeting at least $50 million. His firm focuses on robotics, logistics, manufacturing, and energy—areas he calls the 'real economy.' Sakkers' journey highlights that while institutional limited partners remain risk-averse, some emerging managers can still carve out a niche by specializing and demonstrating endurance.