Global CO2 emissions dip slightly but remain dangerously high

A new report from the Global Carbon Project projects global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 0.4% in 2026, driven partly by expansion of solar and wind power and the energy shock from the Iran conflict. The projected total for 2026 is 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil CO2 emissions, with oil emissions expected to fall by 1.9%. However, including emissions from land-use changes like deforestation, total CO2 emissions are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes, up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year.

The report finds that while renewables and electric vehicles are meeting two-thirds of rising global energy demand, growth in clean energy is not yet fast enough for a durable emissions decline. The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C is now just 150 billion tonnes—less than four years of emissions at current rates. The takeaway: geopolitical shocks are delivering minor, temporary emissions relief, but only accelerated clean technology deployment can deliver the sustained decline needed to avert dangerous climate impacts.